Saul Munn

0: Navigation I’m aiming for a reader who knows what “prediction markets” and “adverse selection” are, who likes the first and not the second, and who enjoys systems that have neatly aligned incentives. For a primer on prediction markets, read Scott Alexander’s FAQ. If you’re already familiar

when i come across good quotes, i write them down. the below are those i collected between october 2022 and november 2023. It is much, much easier to pick out a way in which a system is sub-optimal, than it is to implement or run that system at anything like

* of all the things that you do, what do you think you do best? what do you think you do worst? * of all the things that i do, what am i worst at? * where do you go to find people who think well? * what do you want? * what do you

Edit 4/1/2024: I no longer use this deck. Since publishing this, I think I've gotten better at learning how to use Anki effectively — I endorse some better version of this deck, whereby you memorize translations between odds and percentages, but I don't endorse this

Multiple-choice test scores are meant to reflect a student’s knowledge. Students estimate the right answer for each question; students who understand the content estimate the right answer more often than students who don’t. But multiple-choice tests force students to be 100% confident in one answer and 0% confident

1. ask chatgpt 2. google it, see if someone else has already solved the problem 1. if it’s something a research paper might have solved, try asking elicit 3. set a 5-minute timer, and think about the problem for 5 minutes. don’t think for 1-2 mins then go